Groundhog Day in the Gulf

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Back on April 10th, when word of the cessation of hostilities with Iran first broke, I reminded people that any agreement with Trump is worthless. The man is, by nature, treacherous. As I wrote at the time: 

This is typical Trump: a man with a long history of violating contractual obligations (3,500 breach-of-contract lawsuits over the past three decades, according to the Journal Sentinel).  Having done what he needed to do to extricate himself from this fantastic mess that he created with his co-conspirator and war criminal, Benji Netanyahu, Trump is now attempting to change the terms of the deal to suit himself. 

Can I call it or what? 

I don't deserve any credit, though, as Trump, being the simplest of simple-minded individuals, is fantastically easy to read and predict.  Which is why he lost the war against a mid-tier regional power like Iran, and will lose this next round as well.

Speaking of, here is the headline from today's New Zork Times:


If this didn’t have grievous real‑world consequences, it would be hilarious — something straight out of Groundhog Day. Only, you know, this time we’re marching into combat operations with depleted munition stockpiles, an oil market already stressed by Persian Gulf hostilities and Russia’s failing war in Ukraine, and a strategic petroleum reserve running on fumes.

To make matters worse, Trump is now pursuing his sophisticated “I’m rubber, you’re glue…” strategy, in which America will adopt Iran’s toll‑for‑safe‑passage model in the Gulf. Why? Because Iran did it first — and Trump wants to take credit for something lucrative and painful, two qualities that reliably get his attention.

Again, from the NYT:

The fee that President Trump wants to charge ships going through the Strait of Hormuz would significantly increase the cost of transporting oil and other products through the crucial waterway, shipping operators and logistics experts said.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said the United States would charge a 20 percent fee on all cargo shipped through the strait, as a way to recover the cost of providing military protection to vessels using the waterway.

...

Still, the fact that the United States, a longtime supporter of freedom of navigation in the strait and elsewhere, is now pushing for a fee, and the sheer magnitude of the charge, is stirring up concern.

Mr. Trump did not explain exactly how the 20 percent fee would be calculated.


 I don’t believe Trump has ever had an original thought in his life — or a coherent one. Which is why this latest ploy is neither innovative nor helpful to his war effort. In fact, it’s almost perfectly designed to aid Iran’s.

By copying Tehran’s strategy, Trump isn’t outmaneuvering Iran; he’s validating them. He’s setting a precedent with their toll system, normalizing the very thing he claimed was intolerable, and adding yet another stress point to an already fragile global oil market.

It’s imitation masquerading as strategy — and like everything else in this conflict, it will backfire exactly the way anyone paying attention knew it would.

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡


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