In Defeat: Acceptance

It must be hard to be a Trump voter these days. Consider your track record:

• You voted for a felon to become richer, and now you are poorer
• You voted for an insurrectionist to "own the libs", and now the right-wing has never been weaker
• You voted for a draft dodger to make America stronger, and now the nation has lost a war in a little over one hundred days

But, hey, who needs fancy book learnin', right?  What do experts in foreign policy know that a corn-shucker in Iowa doesn't? Isn't that right? 

You damn fools. You mouth-breathing, reality TV-addicted, cage-match cheering rubes.  What have you done...

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When I wrote in a previous blog post that 'Unconditional Surrender' Trump had surrendered, I didn't expect that to be literally true! What I was anticipating was Trump slinking away with his tail between his legs by agreeing to some nebulous ceasefire terms that never progress beyond the discussion phase, with Trump declaring victory despite not having achieved a single goal.  What I never anticipated was Trump, the greatest conqueror since Ming the Merciless, and Secretary of Waaaaaaaaarrrrrrrr! Petey Hegseth, the manliest man to ever wear a uniform, to so botch a war that it not only resulted in a defeat in a mere 100-odd days, but also an actual surrender document, complete with - get this - a signing ceremony at Versailles, France, the palace where Germany surrendered to the victorious allies at the conclusion of World War One!  

A sickly Trump, reminiscent of FDR at Yalta, signs the MoU (From Sky News)

To watch an obviously ill Trump put his signature to such a document leaves me speechless. I'd never thought I would see such a thing in my lifetime. Of course, I never thought I would see half the voting public elect a convicted felon, a self-professed sexual predator, and an insurrectionist to the presidency, but that just goes to show the extent of my naivety. 

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To read the actual "Memorandum of Understanding" is to understand just how completely Trump and his friends in the military-industrial complex thoroughly lost this conflict.  

Before I get into that, though, I need to point something out that is very important. As is ever the case with this corrupt and incompetent administration - and one is never sure which of the two is dominant at the moment - this signed document is not meaningless words, something that JP Mandell and other White House officials have argued recently. A signed MoU, or any other diplomatic agreement, is a contract by another name. In other words, it is a formalised agreement that places performance obligations on the signatories, and likewise specifies, implicitly or otherwise, penalties if those obligations are not met.  So, if you hear anyone from the Trump regime or their lickspittles in the media tell you that the actual text of the agreement does not matter, know that they are lying to you, either out of ignorance or malice.  

Now, let's take a brief look at parts of this document that I consider pivotal:

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war by signing this M.O.U. declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain [from] the threat or use of force against each other and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

This is a stunning concession by the United States, one that will have regional implications for decades to come. This clause effectively acknowledges Iran’s sphere of influence in Lebanon.  To put that another way, Iran has gone from an isolated nation to one now cobbling together the beginnings of a larger security coalition that might well come to resemble the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War.  And just as the Pact was organised in opposition to NATO, this new security arrangement is clearly directed at what has come to be known as the "Greater Israel" project of Netanyahu and his Zionist allies, where Israel is seeking to expand its borders and enlarge its regional influence at the expense of its neighbours.  If this portion of the agreement holds - and that is a big "if" - Israel will find itself checkmated by Iran when it comes to that generational project. In short, Iranian influence will grow while Israel's weakens, and the power balance of the Persian Gulf will be altered away from Western interests to those of Iran and its allies, such as Russia and China. 

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Simply, this is Trump selling out the Iranian protestors. In a matter of a mere one hundred days, America went from being "locked and loaded" for the Iranian people who have been brutalised by this regime, to telling them they are now on their own - "glhf!" It is a betrayal. Period.

• The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days extendable with mutual consent.

Briefly, there is no hard timeline for a permanent deal concerning outstanding issues. If both sides agree to kick the can down the road, the negotiations could drag on for months or years. And seeing the complexity of the issues involved and the wide chasm of disagreement about those issues, it is unlikely we will see the 60-day limit achieved without extension.

• Immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of prewar traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

Here is the smoking gun. For 100 days, the Trump regime insisted the Strait of Hormuz was never closed, and our energy security was unfazed. Yet, with one stroke of the pen, they have officially acknowledged the very 'non-existent' blockade they spent months denying, thereby confessing that every denial and every dismissal about losing control of the Hormuz Strait was as surely a lie as were reports that the Sixth Army was doing just swell at Stalingrad.

To make matters worse, Trump’s own desperate boasting - that this deal avoided a "worldwide depression" - is the final admission: the regime wasn't just lying; they were terrified. In short, this agreement can now be seen for exactly what it is: a frantic, desperate exit from a conflict they knew was catastrophically lost. And Iran now knows this if they didn't before. What would happen if Iran walks away from this MoU because of Israeli intransigence? With the president blabbing about global depressions, Iran understands the wild panic they could inflict if they closed the Strait again.  

Iran has all the cards....

• Upon the signing of this M.O.U., the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran, will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

This is perhaps the most stunning concession of all. It formalises a transition: after a 60-day 'free' window, a new, permanent fee structure - jointly administered by Iran and Oman (whose territorial waters comprise the bulk of the Hormuz waterway) - is effectively sanctioned.

Note what is missing: there is no return to the status quo ante. By signing this, the U.S. has not restored the old order but accepted the new one. Iran has successfully converted a wartime tactic into a permanent revenue stream and a new mechanism of geopolitical leverage, leaving global Persian Gulf traffic for the worse. If the previous points didn't convince you that Iran was the undisputed victor of 'Epstein Fury,' this confirms it. 

• The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least U.S.D. 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

The most humiliating point yet. After Trump railed against former President Barack Obama releasing $1.7 billion under the JCPOA, Donald Trump, the master negotiator who signed his name to The Art of the Deal, has agreed to give roughly 176 times the amount of money! To make this even clearer, the reconstruction package is roughly equivalent to Iran’s entire annual GDP.  And while the administration claims that this proviso merely means nations are now free to invest in Iran if they so choose, the reality is different: this clause directs the US to arrange and facilitate such investment. 

In short: Iran demanded war reparations for the damage it received during the conflict, and has now received assurances that with the successful completion of a final deal, it will receive them. This is a latter-day Marshall Plan - not for a defeated and supine foe but for an undefeated and active enemy.

• The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, I.A.E.A. Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and express their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Here, I will just quote the analysis of Michael Crowley, as I have nothing to add:

Relief from crushing economic sanctions may be the only thing that can persuade Iran to surrender its nuclear program. This was the basis for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which traded sanctions relief for strict caps on Iran’s nuclear activity. Those caps were limited to a maximum of 15 years, however, and Mr. Trump says he wants much longer — or even permanent — constraints on Tehran's nuclear program. A big challenge from here will be determining the “agreed-upon schedule” that establishes what sanctions the United States will remove, and when, as Iran fulfills its nuclear commitments. That will likely mean a gradual process in which the two mistrustful sides take alternating incremental steps.

• The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled, enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in Paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down-blending on site under the supervision of the I.A.E.A. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on the statutory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned, and express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiation in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

Here, we come to the putative cause of the war. This section is so bland as to be functionally meaningless. It restates an existing fact, i.e., "that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons," something Iran has twice repeatedly attested to, first in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, then in the JCPOA.  What is more, despite Trump declaring that Iran must surrender its enriched uranium to another nation (what Trump likes to refer to as "nuclear dust" in his simple-minded way), there is no insistence on this issue (to the contrary, with the mention of "down-blending on site").  So, in a war that was supposedly all about preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, something that required repeated "obliterations" of that capability, as well as joint US/Israeli sneak attacks during negotiations, this paramount issue remains unresolved at worst and a return to the JCPOA at best. But, hey, that murky result was worth all the blood and treasure, right?

• The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this M.O.U., and until the termination of sanctions, U.S. Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

This is merely the Trump administration giving in to a core Iranian demand, one that will re-open a crucial revenue stream for the war-torn nation. And while Vance today dismissed this as a return to pre-war conditions, that is not entirely true. Before this agreement, Iran had to sell its petroleum at a cut rate to buyers because certain sanctions remained. Now, with the issuance of waivers, Iran no longer has to peddle its oil in such a fashion but can sell it openly at fair market value as with any other oil exporter. In other words, another win for Iran.

• The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this M.O.U. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during the negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

This is Iran hitting the jackpot. Billions in frozen assets will be released back to them. Period. Not conditional. Not performative. Just take the money and run! Here, the Trump regime gave away the shop and didn't even ask for a thank-you kiss in return. 

• The final deal will be endorsed by a binding U.N.S.C. resolution. 

This is interesting, as there is no mention of approval by the US congress as required by the Constitution. Seeing how it is now even money that Democrats may well sweep both chambers in the upcoming midterm elections, there is a good chance that if any final deal is reached, contentious congressional hearings will result, something that could offer yet another opportunity to scuttle it, a real possibility seeing the boiling anger from a large portion of Trump's own hawkish Republican coalition along with an equally sizable chorus of AIPAC-compromised Democrats. 

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Winston Churchill once wrote:

In War: Resolution,

In Defeat: Defiance,

In Victory: Magnanimity

In Peace: Good Will.

Churchill wrote those lines as a man standing atop the smoking ruins of a world he had helped save. America, by contrast, is standing in the ruins of a world we created by a lethal combination of stupidity and political apathy. The Versailles signing wasn’t just a humiliation; it was the moment that America finally admitted it was over. Not with a bang, but with the trembling signature of a bumbling conman, infirm with age, surrounded by incompetents, and indifferent to the sufferings of the nation he leads. 

My God, MAGA. What have you done?

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