Old Timer, Who You Gonna Kill Next?
You have a natural tendency to squeeze off a shot
You're good fun at parties, you wear the right masks
You're old but you still like a laugh in the locker room
You can't abide change, you're at home on the range
You opened the suitcase, behind the old workings
To show off the magnum, you deafened the canyon
A comfort a friend, only upstaged in the end
By the Uzi machine gun, does the recoil remind you
Remind you of sex?
Old man what the hell you gonna kill next, yeah-yeah
Old timer who you gonna kill next?
Silly me, I thought we had entered a period of declining energy for this present regime. Even Trump's State of the Union address to Congress was a snoozefest, where a clearly restrained Trump announced few policy proposals of note, but instead reverted to his D-list reality TV show host act by handing out awards like candy to various guests (I was waiting for him to ask everyone to look under their seat..."You get a crypto account! And you get a crypto account! And you!"). As I wrote about Trump's bizarre December performance, what we got was an entertainer who is way past his prime, reduced to cliches and tired routines that only his most diehard philistine fans would appreciate. And as with that previous pointless "special announcement", this SotU had a half-life of about two hours. By the time the evening was over, people had already forgotten that anything had been said at all.
I'd thought I would have a good few weeks to catch my breath and stop blogging about politics after that somnolent performance by the ever-older performer in the White House.
Again, silly me. Even this blogger, who prides himself on seeing through this transparently evil administration, didn't anticipate that the regime would, just five days after giving a zero-calorie SotU, take America to war against Iran.
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I looked over Jordan and what did I see
Saw a U.S. Marine in a pile of debris
I swam in your pools and lay under your palm trees
I looked in the eyes of the Indian
Who lay on the Federal Building steps
And through the range finder over the hill
I saw the frontline boys popping their pills
Sick of the mess they find on their desert stage
And the bravery of being out of range
Yeah the question is vexed
Old man what the hell you gonna kill next, yeah-yeah
Old timer who you gonna kill next?
Yet, here we are, with America in the biggest regional war since the ill-fated Iraq invasion of the Bush years. Not surprisingly, the Commander-in-Thief couldn't even be bothered to make the case to the American people as to why we needed to launch yet another preemptive strike against Iran as negotiations were taking place. If that sounds familiar, it's because this was the same scenario as when Trump first attacked Iran just eight months ago. Fortunately for the region, Iran, having recently suffered a series of military defeats at the hands of Israel, contented itself with lobbing a few missiles at American and Israeli bases, all telegraphed in advance, followed by an agreement to a ceasefire, one that Trump was thrilled to accept. So thrilled, mind you, that Trump, after crowing about totally obliterating Iran's nuclear weapons program, proceeded to thank Iran for notifying him about the incoming attack.
At the time, I actually gave Trump credit for pulling off a successful one-off attack without igniting the region. It was one hell of a gamble, but it did pay off.
But this is a regime that has proven itself preternaturally capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, partly out of unfounded hubris and partly because it is a dying animal snapping at its own wounds. With the regime's poll numbers cratering to historic lows - not just for Trump, but for all presidents - and with the infamous Epstein files slowly drawing tighter and tighter around the president's neck like a noose hanging from gallows, Trump, ever the man to lash out without careful forethought, concluded that the best way to bury the increasingly dark Epstein revelations, as well as to trigger a rally around the flag reaction to stop his collapsing poll numbers, was to launch a war.
As I've been pointing out since I started this blog, Trump is an incredibly simple-minded creature. Like a primitive organism, he will endlessly repeat an action as long as it consistently delivers the short-term results he desires, the long-term ramifications be damned. For example, over the course of Trump's first year in office, he has engaged in seven military actions across the globe: Venezuela, Nigeria, Somalia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, not to mention acts of piracy off the coast of Venezuela (this from the so-called "Peace President! LOL!). Despite the risk with some of those, the administration has managed to quickly disengage with a win, as shallow as it might be. Because of these chest-thumping results, Trump has gradually come to lose any circumspection concerning military action, and has now concluded that there is nothing so fine as a "splendid little war", an idea reinforced by the fellow chickenhawks in his cabinet, such as FOX News Soldier, Petey Hegseth, as well as by imperialists such as Bebe Netanyahu. Hence, this is how we went from this:
...to the same man now undertaking the most daring, high-intensity military action in the Persian Gulf since the Iraq War.
In a rambling social media post made last night to explain his rationale for the war, Trump had an entire menu of justifications, from Iran sponsoring terrorism to Iran's ballistic missile program, regime change, and, of course, to stop Iran's nuclear program, something Trump boasted about "obliterating" just months ago:
Circle the menu item you would like to order.
I tell ya: as I've written about before, being in the MAGA cult must be an exhausting experience for anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty because the rationales of the movement are as enduring as an ice cube on a hot summer sidewalk.
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| MAGA awaits instructions about how to spin "No more Middle Eastern wars!" into "We need to attack Iran for regime change!" |
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Hey bartender over here
Two more shots and two more beers
Sir, turn up the TV sound
The war has started on the ground
Just love those laser guided bombs
They're really great for righting wrongs
You hit the target and win the game
From bars 3,000 miles away
3,000 miles away
Having said all that, it is now clear that this war is not going well. As the New York Times reads tonight:
As I wrote above, Trump is a simple-minded creature. Like a toddler, he assumes that if something worked out for him in the past, it will continue to do so ad infinitum. I have no doubt, none whatsoever, that Trump expected this strike on Iran to play out exactly how the last one did: with a brief exchange of firepower, followed by an uneasy truce.
That is not what he is getting.
Instead, Iran, a nation he has twice humiliated with backstabs as Tehran was engaged in good faith negotiations with the US and its partners, has now reached its diplomatic breaking point. This sneak attack would have probably been enough on its own, but this regime, with the help of bloodthirsty Israel, also targeted and eliminated a large portion of Tehran's leadership. While few will lament the elimination of such a historically evil cabal of men, it is nonetheless understandable why the survivors will not be seeking yet another ceasefire any time soon. After all, seeing how this is the second surprise attack inflicted on your nation in less than a year by the same power, what guarantee could be made that they will not discard the next ceasefire as soon as it becomes inconvenient? That is the problem with the Trump regime's foreign policy, from its unprovoked trade wars to its go-it-alone, "might makes right" military action: America no longer has any credibility in diplomatic circles, with friend or foe.
Not surprisingly, Iran has now lashed out, and not just against America and Israel, but also against just about every Gulf nation that has cozied up to America and/or Israel, or was historically content to cheer the fireworks over Iran whenever America or Israel took military action. Now, they are all paying a heavy price:
And what if Iran decides to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of the global petro supply? This has been a long-standing Iranian threat, a trigger never pulled because of its global implications. But if Iran considers itself in an existential battle for survival, if not now...when? How do you think an American economy already teetering on the brink of a severe recession due to Trump's antediluvian trade (formerly tariff) policies will respond to a global oil shortage?
Lastly, many seem to have forgotten that Iran sports the thirteenth largest army in the world. And while it is a typical Middle Eastern army, which is to say an army that relies on aging equipment and questionable training, and also lacks any sort of effective air cover, what would happen if Iran decided to launch a cross-border war into Iraq? Sure, American air power would savage Iranian columns, but guess what? For every tactical fighter-bomber attacking Iranian ground forces, that is one less aircraft available for striking other military targets. And, as a matter of logic, no air force will be able to kill every last soldier with an army of that size. Iran could effectively force America into something Trump dreads: an unpredictable land war in the Middle East. I admit this is an edge-case scenario, but I don't think it is as unlikely as some think.
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There is an old adage that starting a war is easy, but ending one is supremely difficult. This is the situation Trump now finds himself in. And don't take my word for it, Trump himself has now shifted his rhetoric from a short period of air strikes to something that might now take weeks:
President Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. military intends to sustain its assault on Iran for “four to five weeks” if necessary, insisting that it “won’t be difficult” for Israel and the United States to maintain the intensity of the battle even as he warned of the possibility of more American casualties.
Of course, the line about sustaining this tempo of operations for four to five weeks not being difficult is a lie. As past American air campaigns, particularly the first Gulf War air campaign, have demonstrated, it is, in fact, quite difficult. Modern stealth aircraft are not made of canvas and wire; they are incredibly maintenance-heavy machines comprised of delicate components that don't withstand high-intensity operations for long. And, needless to say, the pilots are not machines (not yet!); they need rest. If Trump thinks he can sustain this air campaign at this tempo beyond another week, he is living in (yet another) world of fantasy.
And that is Iran's goal. As any student of recent American military history well knows, America is great in the sprint, but awful in the marathon. Our nation is capable of short-term "shock and awe," but loses interest when military operations don't end quickly. This is why the Taliban is back in power in Afghanistan, and Iraq nearly fell to the insurgency.
Time is not on Trump's side. Politically, America is not behind him on this war. Even his base is splitting (yet again) on this latest betrayal of a core MAGA principle. When your polls are already cratering, the last thing you need is an unprovoked war that brings American soldiers home in coffins.
Worse, for all its incredible ability and professionalism, the American military, like any other military, suffers from the usual limitations of logistics and human endurance. With national ammo supplies already reduced due to external demands of allies and partners, including but not limited to Ukraine and Israel, every bomb dropped on Iran is one less available elsewhere. We are not a bottomless pit of munitions, and we have security obligations beyond the Middle East, particularly in Asia.
Lastly, if Iran can pinch, by deed or threat, the global oil supply while also setting the Persian Gulf ablaze with random missile and drone attacks, and acts of terrorism and sabotage, then Trump is facing not just a political disaster, but a strategic disaster as his was destabilizes the globe.
I suspect he knows this because, according to an interview with The Atlantic, he is already offering to talk with the new leaders of Iran. There is even an unconfirmed report tonight that he is seeking a ceasefire via Italian mediation efforts. It is worth noting that Iran has publicly rejected such calls for a ceasefire.
Where does this end? I have no idea. Trump, in yet another act of foolhardiness, has uncorked war in one of the most unstable places in the world. As ever, there is no indication that Trump has any sort of coherent plan for victory, or even what "victory" would look like. While shooting from the hip might work when kidnapping a drug kingpin from a South American country, or dropping bombs on uranium enrichment sites, such a strategy is doomed to fail when confronting an entire nation with not the resources to defend itself.
As Roger Waters wrote for his prescient song, The Bravery of Being Out of Range:
We play the game
With the bravery of being out of range
We zap and maim
With the bravery of being out of range
We strafe the train
With the bravery of being out of range
We gained terrain
With the bravery of being out of range
We play the game
With the bravery of being out of range
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