Day 154: Trump Trumps Iran

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Credit where credit is due: It appears that President Trump's Iranian gamble paid off with a win.  A few hours ago, Iran did retaliate against American bases in the region, but the attacks were minor and telegraphed in advance. As the New Zork Times reports:

Even as it attacked, there were signs that Iran was been looking for an off-ramp from a confrontation with the United States. Three Iranian officials said their government had given advance notice that the missile strike was coming, to minimize potential casualties, and President Trump responded with an olive branch online.

“Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same,” he wrote in one of a series of posts on Truth Social.

That's the game right there. Score one for Team Trump.

I am not nonplussed by these developments. As I wrote yesterday, Iran has its back against the wall. Its proxies smashed by Israel, its armed forces antiquated, and its skies in full control of Israeli warplanes, Iran's options were limited to doing little to nothing or going all in for a full regional war despite not being in a position to maintain such an effort in the face of superior Israeli and American firepower. The best they could have hoped to achieve would be to bait Trump into committing ground troops, thereby setting America up for another Iraq War debacle. Given those two choices - a token attack or an extremely difficult and likely to fail regional war effort - Iran decided to fold its cards and walk away from the table.

Whether this will remain Iran's long-term position is unknown, of course, but in the short term, Iran appears to be in tatters following recent events. Could this lead to "regime change", as Trump recently suggested? Time will tell if the Iranian people are up for that long overdue counterrevolution. My fear is a Netanyahu is willing the force this conflict in that direction. If so, will Trump follow along once again?

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I can't believe I am doing this, but I have to give Trump praise on a second point: his willingness to poke Medvedev in the eye.

If you are not aware, Dmitri Medvedev is the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia and a former Russian President. He is also something of a one-trick pony who likes to routinely threaten America with nuclear war whenever he feels Russia is on its back foot, or just out of boredom, I suspect.  In the aftermath of Trump's ostensibly successful Iran strikes, Medvedev couldn't resist doing it again, this time threatening to give Iran nukes in response to the American attacks. He wrote on social media that “A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.” This is an empty threat, of course, as Russia would have just as much to fear from a nuclear-armed Iran on its border as any other nation. 

Trump, high on his recent victory, punched back with his own post afterward. He wrote,

“Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The ‘N word’ should not be treated so casually. I guess that’s why Putin’s ‘THE BOSS.’” 

Trump then went on to correctly point out how America enjoys some of the most sophisticated nuclear submarines in the world, something just demonstrated by their participation in the successful strikes on Iran.  As demonstrated in Ukraine, Russia, like Iran, is a nation whose bark is worse than its bite, a nation that talks tough but is unable to cash the checks that it's writing.  

Take the hint, Dmitri.  You don't want to tangle with us.

Score another point for Team Trump!

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I am an inveterate opponent of Trump and his MAGA toxicity. However, I also always try to be fair, as much as it may pain me on days like today. 😃 But today was definitely a good day for the White House, perhaps the only good day it has had since the start of Trump 2.0.  It is days like today that make me wish that the Trump of today is the Trump of every day, a man of fortitude and focus, and not the capricious and destructive reactionary of days past. I am sure this blog will soon return to chronicling the imbecility of the administration, but for right now, let's enjoy this moment. 

🔼🔼🔼🔼🔼

 

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