Day 80: Like A Whipped Dog...

 

Like a whipped dog forced to crawl on his belly to his masters, Trump has announced a 90-day pause on his insane tariff policy. As CNN reports:

Trump announces 90-day pause on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs with exception of China

President Donald Trump announced a complete three-month pause on all the “reciprocal” tariffs that went into effect at midnight, with the exception of China, a stunning reversal from a president who had insisted historically high tariffs were here to stay.

But enormous tariffs will remain on China, the world’s second-largest economy. In fact, Trump said they will be increased to 125% from 104% after China announced additional retaliatory tariffs against the United States earlier Wednesday. All other countries that were subjected to reciprocal tariff rates Wednesday will see rates go back down to the universal 10% rate, he said.

Remember that this announcement was made via a social media post, not as part of a formal announcement at the White House. I suspect this was the case because Trump made the decision spur of the moment, without consulting his clown car of sycophantic trade officials. I say that because when watching the initial statements to the press with people like TresSec Bessant, they all had a 'deer in the headlight' look to their eyes. Indeed, the best explanation Bessant could muster for the sudden reversal is the laughable idea that they've had so many nations begging them for a Trumpian trade indulgence, that the administration needed time to process them. This, of course, is nonsense. It doesn't require a three-month pause on the entire tariff package to respond to separate offers, not to mention that large trading blocks, such as the EU, had already announced counter-tariffs, i.e., the exact opposite of begging for tariff relief.  The EU was gonna fight, much as China is going to fight. 

Like the middle school bully that he is, Trump, when confronted with push-back, developed a yellow strip down his back, put his tail between his legs, and slinked away while declaring victory. That is what Ol' Yeller does best: bluster, and little else.  

I have heard many reasons why Trump, after insisting that the tariffs were here to stay, suddenly caved. The most obvious reason, of course, was the over 6 trillion dollars of market devaluation, with the all-important bond market starting to collapse last night. Contrary to Trump's insistence that such pain was for the good of the country, the saner people around Trump recognized that America was tipping over into a deep recession, if not an actual depression. I suspect they manipulated Trump, probably using a puppet show to hold his attention, into calling off the latest round of tariffs. In the end, Trump became an orange Panican. Oh, the irony...

While the markets recovered spectacularly today with the announcement of the partial trade war pause, tremendous damage has already been done, not just financially, but also by breaking trust with our closest trading partners. And it is worth keeping in mind that just because we had a moment of sanity today, that doesn't mean that tomorrow there won't be another bout of craziness from Ol' Yeller. This is what it means to live under a lunatic, a man whose decisions are as likely driven by the phases of the moon as they are by reason. Others have begun to speculate about this possibility, too. As Jon Cooper relayed on Bluesky today:

 

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We were always at war with Eurasia...

On a day like today, there are more hilarious memes that can be counted, so please forgive me for posting a few today. But I thought the above was another that was spot-on. Over the last few days, I've lost track of the number of videos I've seen where MAGA supporters were inventing all sorts of fantastical reasons why what Trump was doing was economic genius. The most popular refrain was Trump's own economically illiterate and regressive idea that a disruption in global trade would trigger an American economic renaissance with factories and jobs springing up like dew on the morning grass; that Trump was playing chess thirty moves ahead of his opponents; that the mounting financial destruction would all be worth it as crippling tariffs would trigger some sort of ex nihilo economic creation. They went to the mat on this with a conviction rarely seen outside of religious fervor. 

I wonder what they are now thinking? 

Like the conman he is, Trump just made all of them into jackasses as he reversed the very policy that they were passionately defending just a few hours ago. Of course, MAGA, being a cult of personality, is more than able to engage in double-think, in holding two mutually contradictory ideas as simultaneously true. It is a type of political super-position, an idea borrowed from quantum physics where something exists in two conditions simultaneously until an observation is made.  This mentality was on display by Trump himself when, during a presser this afternoon, he praised himself for putting the tariffs into effect as well as removing them. 

Still, I suspect it must be grating to have Ol' Yeller make a fool of you over and over again. I mean, how many times can you prostitute yourself only to receive a backhanded slap to the face as a tip? 

Perhaps MAGA is just red-hatted furries into S&M. 

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Now, let us talk about those China tariffs that have increased to 125%. As I wrote about yesterday, this is extremely dangerous. In effect, Trump is declaring a trade embargo on China as nobody is foolish enough to pay over double the price for something that can be purchased cheaper elsewhere. Trump, in his staggering ignorance, doesn't appreciate that China is the world's largest military (which is not the same as the best military, mind you) and the second-largest economy in the world. In other words, they can withstand a great deal more than lesser nations. In addition, they also have the means to strike back in asymmetrical ways, such as threatening Taiwan or engaging in currency manipulation, or by state of the art cyber warfare. Lastly, it is important to always remember that China is very protective of its newfound status as a respected power. The "Century of Humiliation," during which China was exploited by the West through unequal treaties, forced trade concessions, and territorial and economic dependence, is a painful lesson that Beijing never allows itself to forget. I have no doubt that they see Trump's economic aggression as a prelude to yet another attempt to humiliate China with crippling trade manipulation.  There is an important difference this time, though: China has nukes and a 2-million-man army ready to fight if it comes to it. 

Trump is playing a very dangerous game of chicken...

EDIT: Did I call this right or what? 

From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’: Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs

Many of Mr. Trump’s most senior advisers and officials were unaware of this major shift in policy until the last minute, because as recently as Wednesday morning Mr. Trump was still indicating he was sticking to his previous plan.